Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts believes Bitcoin could be entering the second half of its bear market, with weakening selling pressure and a potential path toward $200,000–$250,000 over the next few years.

Jamie Coutts Sees Early Signs That Bitcoin’s Downtrend Is Losing Strength

After months of weak price action and cautious investor sentiment, there may finally be reasons for Bitcoin holders to become cautiously optimistic.

According to Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, Bitcoin appears to be progressing through the later stages of its current bear market. While he stressed that the correction is not over, he believes technical indicators are beginning to show that bearish momentum is fading.

Rather than calling for an immediate recovery, Coutts suggests the market may be entering a transition phase where selling pressure gradually eases before a new bullish cycle eventually develops.

For investors, that distinction is important. Markets often stop falling well before they begin trending meaningfully higher.

Why Coutts Thinks the Bear Market Is Maturing

Speaking during an interview, Coutts described Bitcoin’s current decline as relatively typical compared to previous market cycles.

Bitcoin has been trading near $63,000, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. Although that correction appears significant, it is considerably milder than some of Bitcoin’s historical downturns.

For comparison:

• During the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin lost more than 80% of its value from peak to bottom.
• In 2022, the cryptocurrency declined by approximately 77% before eventually recovering.
• The current cycle has seen a noticeably smaller drawdown, suggesting increasing market maturity.

Coutts also noted that Bitcoin’s price volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared with the previous cycle, indicating that market swings are becoming less extreme as institutional participation continues to grow.

Technical Indicators Are Beginning to Improve

Although the overall trend remains bearish, Coutts believes one important technical signal deserves attention.

He pointed to the emergence of a bullish divergence on longer-term momentum indicators.

In simple terms, Bitcoin’s price has continued to weaken while the pace of selling has slowed. Traders often interpret this type of divergence as an early indication that downward momentum is fading, even if prices have not yet established a sustained uptrend.

However, Coutts cautioned that this should not be confused with confirmation of a new bull market.

Markets frequently experience temporary recoveries during broader downtrends, making patience essential before declaring that the correction has ended.

Weak On-Chain Demand Also Played a Role

Many investors blamed Bitcoin’s recent weakness on tighter global financial conditions and reduced liquidity.

Coutts agrees those factors mattered, but he believes blockchain data tells another important part of the story.

According to his analysis, on-chain demand also deteriorated during the downturn.

Metrics such as wallet activity, transaction demand, and overall network participation often correlate with Bitcoin’s price over longer periods. When user activity declines alongside weakening liquidity, price corrections tend to become more pronounced.

As on-chain indicators stabilize, they could eventually provide additional support for a market recovery.

A $1 Million Bitcoin? Coutts Says It’s Too Early to Be Certain

Some of the cryptocurrency industry’s biggest names have predicted that Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million before the end of this decade.

Executives including Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, and Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, have publicly shared long-term forecasts in that range.

Coutts, however, prefers a more conservative outlook.

While he acknowledged that some of his long-term valuation models previously pointed toward $1 million by 2032 or 2033, he believes forecasts that far into the future depend heavily on unknown variables, particularly global monetary policy and inflation.

Instead, he says he has greater confidence in a shorter-term target.

His current expectation is that Bitcoin could trade between $200,000 and $250,000 within the next two to three years, assuming broader market conditions improve.

Artificial Intelligence Could Become a New Source of Demand

One of the more interesting themes raised by Coutts involves artificial intelligence.

As autonomous AI systems become increasingly capable of managing digital assets, they may eventually require secure ways to store and transfer value.

Coutts questioned whether AI agents could eventually choose Bitcoin as a reserve asset in the same way many human investors currently view it as digital gold.

Although that scenario remains speculative, it reflects a growing conversation across the crypto industry.

Companies such as Coinbase, Circle, and several blockchain developers have already begun building payment infrastructure designed specifically for AI agents, suggesting this trend may become increasingly relevant over the coming years.

Quantum Computing Could Become Bitcoin’s Biggest Long-Term Challenge

Despite his optimism about Bitcoin’s future price potential, Coutts also highlighted an important technological risk.

He believes the Bitcoin community should begin preparing for advances in quantum computing, which could eventually threaten traditional cryptographic security if sufficient breakthroughs occur.

According to Coutts, meaningful progress toward quantum-resistant upgrades should begin before 2027, given Bitcoin’s decentralized governance model.

Unlike centralized software platforms, major protocol upgrades on Bitcoin often require years of community discussion, testing, and adoption before becoming operational.

While many researchers believe practical quantum attacks remain years away, the debate has become increasingly active as quantum hardware continues to improve.

Bitcoin Has Historically Recovered From Every Major Bear Market

History shows that Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced severe corrections before reaching new record highs.

After falling roughly 85% during the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin eventually climbed to nearly $69,000 in 2021.

Following the 2022 market collapse triggered by macroeconomic tightening and several crypto industry failures, Bitcoin later recovered to new all-time highs above $126,000 in 2025.

Of course, past performance never guarantees future results.

Still, Bitcoin’s long-term history demonstrates that prolonged periods of pessimism have often preceded its strongest rallies.

Personal Analysis: The Current Cycle Looks Different From Previous Bear Markets

In my view, Jamie Coutts raises several compelling points.

The current correction appears less dramatic than previous Bitcoin bear markets, largely because institutional investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs, and corporate treasury adoption have created a broader ownership base than existed five or ten years ago.

That doesn’t eliminate downside risk, but it may help explain why volatility has gradually declined.

I also agree that investors should avoid becoming overly focused on extremely long-term price targets such as $1 million. Forecasts extending a decade into the future depend on countless economic, political, and technological variables that nobody can accurately predict.

The more realistic discussion today is whether Bitcoin can regain strong on-chain demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions over the next few years. If those factors improve simultaneously, a move toward the $200,000–$250,000 range appears far more grounded than headline-grabbing million-dollar predictions.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin may not have fully escaped its current bear market, but according to Jamie Coutts, the worst phase of selling could gradually be passing.

Technical momentum is beginning to stabilize, volatility has declined compared with previous cycles, and institutional participation continues to reshape the market’s structure.

Whether those early signals develop into a sustained recovery remains uncertain, but they suggest investors should pay close attention to both on-chain activity and broader macroeconomic trends in the months ahead.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for educational and market analysis purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile, and investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

Key Takeaways

• Jamie Coutts believes Bitcoin is likely entering the later stages of its current bear market.
• Bitcoin’s volatility has declined by roughly 50% compared with the previous market cycle.
• Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum is weakening, although the broader trend remains negative.
• Coutts expects Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 within the next two to three years.
• He considers $1 million Bitcoin forecasts possible over a much longer timeframe but too uncertain to predict confidently today.
• Coutts also believes Bitcoin developers should prioritize quantum-resistant security upgrades before the end of the decade.

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