Bitcoin’s price has skyrocketed since the last halving event in 2020, surging a staggering 650%. If past performance predicts future results, this digital gold could reach a whopping $435,000 per coin by the next halving in 2028. But is this a realistic target, or are there reasons to be skeptical?
Looking Back at Bitcoin Halving Cycles
Data shows Bitcoin’s price has indeed climbed significantly after each halving. The first halving in 2012 saw a dramatic rise from near zero to $12.50, a mind-blowing 12,400% increase. Subsequent halvings brought impressive gains as well, with a 5,200% jump to $650 by 2016 and a 1,200% increase to $8,500 by 2020.
However, a concerning trend emerges: diminishing returns. The average price rally post-halving has decreased by 45% with each cycle. Applying this trend to the current cycle’s 658% increase suggests a 360% rally by 2028, which would translate to a price of around $303,600 per Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Halving vs. ETF Impact
Some experts believe the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is fueled by a different factor: the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, argues there’s limited evidence linking price increases directly to the halving event. While he wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a $435,000 Bitcoin, he emphasizes a cautious approach.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Race for Supremacy?
Other analysts point to Bitcoin’s potential to surpass gold as a store of value. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicts Bitcoin ETFs could even overtake gold ETFs in popularity within the next two years. Additionally, Bitcoin’s growth trajectory seems to be significantly faster than gold’s initial rise after its own ETF launch in 2004. This rapid growth has led some, like Sam Wouters, head of contact at River, to say Bitcoin is essentially “speedrunning” gold’s historical price movements.
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are subject to market risks, and individuals should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
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